a constrained beast…

Chapter 4: A constrained global power

Al Jazeera: Really, what you’re saying is that Iran was never going to be a cakewalk. You were one of the earliest people to come and really game this out, saying, “This is not going to end well, and here are the reasons why. You’re going to propel Iran to a level of power and significance that it didn’t enjoy before.” But if you look at the Western Hemisphere, if you look at the Monroe Doctrine, if you look at Venezuela and the grab and snatch of Maduro from Venezuela, and now the rightward shift of even a lot of elections in the Western Hemisphere, you know, Donald Trump points to that as something that’s a clear win. That was a cakewalk. So, what do you think the peculiar characteristics are of when it’s a cakewalk and when it’s not?

Professor Pape: What you’re going to see, is that the Iran war is going to have a powerful effect in constraining America as a great power in many regions of the world. I call it a constrained great power. America will remain the number one most strong military in the world, China number two, and then Russia number three. But it is more constrained. In the case of the Middle East, we’re seeing the balance of power shifting right before our eyes. In the case of Asia, many people are thinking that what will happen is that we’ll pull back from the Middle East and we’re going to go to Asia. This is not right. That’s not a correct understanding of our future. The future is going to be that we are going to be more restrained because if we can’t keep our bases and carriers safe vis-à-vis Iran, imagine how we’ll hold up against China. This is not going to work out. In fact, I won’t be surprised if we start to think twice about building more carriers for Asia. This is going to be a situation where we’re going to be heavily constrained. And of course, you’re also seeing with Russia, Ukraine is now on its own mostly without any real new help, and with the drones, it’s going to do quite well. The opposite of what most people thought, again not understanding the precision air revolution that has been underway for years.