bombastic…

As an aside :(Stockholm, 27 April 2026) World military expenditure reached $2887 billion in 2025, an increase of 2.9 per cent in real terms over 2024. Military spending declined in the United States but rose by 14 per cent in Europe and by 8.1 per cent in Asia and Oceania. The top three military spenders—the USA, China and Russia—spent a combined total of $1480 billion, or 51 per cent of the global total, according to new data published today by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). 

forced tariff…

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer & Flag Hugger

The Trump administration plans to impose new tariffs on dozens of trading partners, including Canada, over allegations the countries are allowing goods produced by forced labour into their supply chains.

The proposed new tariffs were announced by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer late Tuesday night, not long after he wrapped up an afternoon meeting with Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc in Washington. 

“The failure of our most important trading partners to address the importation of goods made with forced labour is unacceptable,” Greer said in a news release.

Court Painter & Double Trouble Portrait

buzzing noisily…

St. Petersburg International Economic Forum

Ukrainian officials shared video footage on Wednesday that showed drones buzzing noisily above St Petersburg’s skyline. “The Petersburg forum is opening with a nice plume of black smoke in the background after Ukrainian strikes,” posted Serhii Sternenko, an adviser to the country’s defence minister.

Ukrainian drones hit energy and military sites in St Petersburg early on Wednesday, hours before international guests gathered for the city’s flagship economic forum, in a blow to Vladimir Putin.

Several long-range drones crashed into oil storage facilities after Russian air defences failed to shoot them down. There were loud explosions and black smoke rose high above the city from the blazing oil terminal. Drones also struck the nearby Kronstadt naval base and shipyard in Leningrad oblast, which is home to Russia’s Baltic fleet. The corvette, the Boikiy, caught fire. It was in dry dock undergoing repairs.

In the past, Russia has used the St Petersburg forum to court western investors. Since Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, most have stayed away. The Kremlin has instead invited close regional and other allies, including this year the presidents of Uzbekistan and Tanzania, alongside ministers from Cuba, Belarus , Saudi Arabia and Donald Trump’s official US delegation led by Rodney Mims Cook Jr.

Source: Edited from The Guardian,June 3/26

Something to look forward to…

Court Painter with landscape “The Straight of Hormuz”

The biggest risk may no longer be escalation.

The biggest risk may be normalization — of instability itself.

For three months, most analysis has focused on military operations, ceasefires, negotiations, and whether a deal is finally within reach.

But what if the more important story is what happens as negotiations continue?

Instability itself may be becoming a source of geopolitical power — that could keep pressure on oil prices, shipping, inflation, and global politics long after any agreement is signed.

Prof Robert Pape from Escalation Trap

https://open.substack.com/pub/escalationtrap/p/the-trap-gets-worse?r=1sx7vz&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

The central issue is no longer whether escalation occurs.

The central issue is whether instability becomes self-sustaining.

If instability continues generating leverage, shaping negotiations, fracturing alliances, influencing energy markets, and creating recurring opportunities for military action, then the future of the Iran war will not be defined primarily by whether negotiations succeed or fail.

It will be defined by whether instability itself becomes durable.

If that happens, the most important legacy of this war will not be the bombing campaign, the negotiations, or even the confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program.

It will be the emergence of a new strategic reality.

A world in which instability itself becomes the new normal — because it is increasingly a source of geopolitical power.

And if that world emerges, the Age of Instability will outlast the war that created it.

Excerpted from Prof Pape’s article.

Court Painter demonstrating normalization of instability in the studio.



know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em”…

  • Alberta separatism has Mark Carney saying what’s on his mind
  • Carney needs to stay out of the separatism debate
  • Danielle Smith’s referendum gamble brings Alberta to the brink — is Canada ready?
  • Prime Minister Carney waves the Clarity Act over Smith’s ‘dangerous bluff’
  • Danielle Smith plays both sides of the separatist coin
  • Carney knows from experience separatism can get very real if Alberta is mishandled
  • Kenney paints a horrifying doomsday picture of an independent Alberta
  • Smith backs federalism. Her party won’t. Sure path to big trouble in UCP
  • Danielle Smith is brewing Canada’s own Brexit problem
  • With her “maybe” option, Danielle Smith could deliver an endless tax on Alberta’s economy

Behind the optics…

Court Painter has called upon a manual phoropter to decipher the optics of the announcement.

Presidental Dining…