America on the event horizon of a black hole.
Playing through
‘Political violence is not random’
Appeared in POLITICO MAGAZINE 09/12/2025 05:00 AM EDT
BY BARBARA WALTER
Barbara Walter is the Rohr Professor of International Affairs at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at UC San Diego. Her most recent book is How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them
Political violence is not random.
Research shows it becomes far more likely under four conditions: when democracy is declining rapidly, when societies are divided by race, religion or ethnicity, when political leaders tolerate or encourage violence, and when citizens have easy access to guns.
The United States checks all four boxes and none of them are getting better. Violence also tends to spike around elections, which means the coming contests in 2026 and 2028 are poised to be flashpoint
The avenues for prevention look bleak. Democrats haven’t had the votes — or the courage — to strengthen democratic institutions. Republicans benefit from the current pseudo-democratic system and have no incentive to reform it. The racial divide has narrowed somewhat, but not enough to defuse conflict. Trump and other MAGA leaders rely on threats and violence to stoke fear, and Congress remains paralyzed on gun control. All of this points toward things getting worse, not better.
The radicalization pipeline runs through a handful of American tech companies that remain almost entirely unregulated.
But there is one place where real progress is still possible. Most acts of political violence in America over the past two decades have been carried out by lone actors — young men radicalized online. The radicalization pipeline runs through a handful of American tech companies that remain almost entirely unregulated.
curb the algorithms
If lawmakers were willing to curb the algorithms that amplify conspiracy theories, disinformation and hate, they could weaken the pipeline feeding violent extremism. After Charlie Kirk’s assassination, that may be the single most immediate lever left to pull.
The question is whether America has the will to pull it before the violence grows worse.
