{"id":26357,"date":"2024-05-06T21:11:23","date_gmt":"2024-05-06T21:11:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/?p=26357"},"modified":"2024-05-06T23:24:24","modified_gmt":"2024-05-06T23:24:24","slug":"non-predictive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/?p=26357","title":{"rendered":"non predictive…"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Court Painter thought these observations might be of some interest in the fog of political rolling polling punditry.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cPolls six, seven months before an election have zero predictive value. Not only are polls a snapshot but they are not predictors. They don\u2019t predict anything and there\u2019s no such thing as, \u2018if the election were held today\u2019. That\u2019s a meaningless statement.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Called the Nostradamus of US presidential elections. Allan Lichtman<\/a> has correctly predicted the result of nine of the past 10 (and even the one that got away, in 2000, he insists was stolen from Al Gore).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n


Although Professor Lichtman’s predictions are primarily focusing on US politics and presidential election outcomes, his remarks regarding the uncertain predictive accuracy of polls many months before elections deserves consideration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s important to clarify that Canada does not directly elect Prime Ministers. The Prime Minister is officially appointed by the Governor General of Canada. By constitutional convention, the Prime Minister must command the confidence of the elected House of Commons. Typically, this is the leader of the party caucus with the most seats in the house. The party that forms the government selects the Prime Minister.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Court Painter thought these observations might be of some interest in the fog of political rolling polling punditry. \u201cPolls six, seven months before an election have zero predictive value. Not only are polls a snapshot but they are not predictors. They don\u2019t predict anything and there\u2019s no such thing as, \u2018if the election were held … Continue reading “non predictive…”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26357","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","hentry","category-images","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26357","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26357"}],"version-history":[{"count":18,"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26357\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26444,"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26357\/revisions\/26444"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26357"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26357"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26357"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}