{"id":18177,"date":"2022-01-06T00:28:17","date_gmt":"2022-01-06T00:28:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/?p=18177"},"modified":"2022-01-06T00:28:17","modified_gmt":"2022-01-06T00:28:17","slug":"straightforward-scenario","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/?p=18177","title":{"rendered":"straightforward scenario &#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery columns-0 is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\"><ul class=\"blocks-gallery-grid\"><\/ul><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/raskin-.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18222\" width=\"636\" height=\"601\" srcset=\"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/raskin-.jpg 636w, https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/raskin--300x283.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US Rep Jamie Raskin<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Excerpted from New Republic article: <em>Jamie Raskin, Democracy\u2019s Defender<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/newrepublic.com\/authors\/michael-tomasky\">Michael Tomasky<\/a>\/January 3, 2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These next three years will test our democracy in ways it hasn\u2019t been tested since the 1860s, or maybe ever. <strong>The scenario is pretty straightforward.<\/strong> The Republicans&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/newrepublic.com\/article\/164760\/republican-revenge-january-6-committee\">retake the House<\/a>&nbsp;in the midterms. Immediately, any chance of Biden passing meaningful legislation is dead, but that\u2019s the least of it. The GOP will launch hearing after hearing, issue subpoena after subpoena; they will find some flimsy rationale on which to impeach Biden, and they will stretch it out as long as possible. Trump will run\u2014as Raskin put it, \u201cfor psychological, political, and financial reasons\u201d\u2014and he will be the GOP nominee, Raskin has little doubt. Assuming Biden seeks reelection, the election will probably be close, because elections just are these days. If Biden wins by a matter of several thousand votes in a few states, as he did in 2020, the Trump machinery will kick into gear to steal the election. Republican election commissioners and state legislators and even some governors will put forward pro-Trump electors. The House of Representatives will not vote to certify Biden\u2019s win in January 2025, which will toss the election to the House, which will make Trump president. (When a presidential election gets thrown to the House, under the Twelfth Amendment, the vote is&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/05\/13\/opinion\/cheney-2024-election.html\" target=\"_blank\">by state delegation<\/a>, so North Dakota has the same voting power as California; Republicans now control, and will likely in 2025 still control, a majority of state delegations, and Liz Cheney will probably be gone, meaning that Wyoming will go pro-Trump.) For the second time in the history of the United States, the other time being 1824, Congress will have installed as the president a candidate who&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/history.house.gov\/Historical-Highlights\/1800-1850\/The-House-of-Representatives-elected-John-Quincy-Adams-as-President\/\" target=\"_blank\">did not win&nbsp;<\/a>a plurality of votes in either the Electoral College or the popular vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Court-Painter-Raskin-.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18221\" width=\"1000\" height=\"714\" srcset=\"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Court-Painter-Raskin-.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Court-Painter-Raskin--300x214.jpg 300w, https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Court-Painter-Raskin--768x548.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cDonald Trump has now converted every formerly ministerial step of the process into a moment for partisan rumble and contest,\u201d Raskin told me. \u201cSo when we\u2019re talking about the certification of the state popular vote, the governors\u2019 certification of the electors, the electors meeting, and then the January 6th joint session receipt of the electors \u2026 all these phases of the process have now been turned into yet another opportunity for partisan combat.\u201d There is no question in Raskin\u2019s mind that this is what Trump and his supporters will try to do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Donald-no-bottom.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18225\" width=\"800\" height=\"857\" srcset=\"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Donald-no-bottom.jpg 800w, https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Donald-no-bottom-280x300.jpg 280w, https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Donald-no-bottom-768x823.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Court-Painter-Raskin-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18219\" width=\"1000\" height=\"685\" srcset=\"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Court-Painter-Raskin-1.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Court-Painter-Raskin-1-300x206.jpg 300w, https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Court-Painter-Raskin-1-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Court-Painter-On-Guard.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18220\" width=\"1008\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Court-Painter-On-Guard.jpg 1008w, https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Court-Painter-On-Guard-300x214.jpg 300w, https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Court-Painter-On-Guard-768x549.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US Rep Jamie Raskin Excerpted from New Republic article: Jamie Raskin, Democracy\u2019s Defender Michael Tomasky\/January 3, 2022 These next three years will test our democracy in ways it hasn\u2019t been tested since the 1860s, or maybe ever. The scenario is pretty straightforward. The Republicans&nbsp;retake the House&nbsp;in the midterms. Immediately, any chance of Biden passing meaningful &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/?p=18177\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;straightforward scenario &#8230;&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","hentry","category-images","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18177","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18177"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18177\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33010,"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18177\/revisions\/33010"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/allanhardingmackay.ca\/courtpainter\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}